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Climate change and extreme weather
Extreme weather

Global climate change is a result of global warming, itself partly driven by greenhouse gas emissions…so say most scientists working in the area. Here, Greenpeace and ANSTO environmental scientist, Professor Ann Henderson-Sellers, provide their own perspectives on this major issue which will affect all of us.

Click on the icons below to read the perspective:

Improving predictions about global warming and extreme weather
By A. Henderson-Sellers

Facts about global warming begin with indisputable physics -- gases which absorb infra-red radiation also re-emit it and, thus, cannot help but warm the surface of any planet. These combine with fully confirmed observations -- the many greenhouse gases increasing in amount in the Earth's atmosphere (1).

Predictions about greenhouse arise from computer models which are complex and sometimes ambiguous. Hence, they are open to debate. These models are essential to us for future planning and therefore deserve as complete an evaluation and hopefully 'validation' as we can manage (2).

Assertions about global warming can be persuasive but incomplete -- for example the undeniable increasing cost of hurricanes in the USA may be due to changes in climate or might be caused by spiraling house prices in states settled by well-off retirees, or the combined result of both. Some 'greenhouse' issues are just plain wrong -- like the way that glasshouses work -- certainly not anything to do with greenhouse warming (3)! If the extreme weather predictions catalogued by Greenpeace are correct, the 'patient' Earth is in need of diagnosis and urgent healing.

Environmental research at ANSTO is dedicated to improving our understanding of the whole Earth system. As nuclear scientists, we do this by studying the Earth in ways analogous to the methods of nuclear medicine. Specifically, we measure movement and monitor processes by tracking stable and radioactive isotopes in water, air and land and by employing the precision retrieval methods of, for example, accelerator-based mass spectrometry to measure natural and people-modified systems.

Before prescribing 'cures' it is wise to confirm symptoms -- sometimes by applying nuclear methods to determining the Earth's state of climate health. Carbon uptake by plants is a hotly debated issue today which is being resolved by nuclear monitoring of carbon-14, a radioisotope created by nuclear testing last century, and naturally by cosmogenic radiation. The same radioisotope is helping us understand the sources of methane which we extract from ice cores drilled in Antarctica and Greenland.

Extreme flooding and droughts are predicted by some models but the characteristics upon which they draw differ greatly (4). As all available standard meteorological and hydrological observations have been used in making these models, the non-science community is increasingly demanding some independent validation of the analysis and forecasting undertaken.

Nuclear science has been measuring two rare forms of water for about 50 years. These stable water isotopes seem to behave like ordinary water but when you look closely, these 'odd' water molecules can tell us about processes such as plant water loss through transpiration that cannot be determined with 'regular' water (5).

Nuclear environmental 'medicine' is focused right now on improving models for better weather and climate predictions.

Climate change and extreme weather
By Greenpeace Australia Pacific

Climate change is with us now. The number of extreme weather records being set around the globe is on the rise (1), a feature of a warming world. Australia is on the frontline of climate change which is set to get much worse if we fail to act quickly to reduce greenhouse emissions.

New heat extremes are a feature of a warming globe. The global average temperature has risen 0.6 degrees over the 20th century (2), with the warming trend since 1976 roughly three times that for the past century -- warming unprecedented in the last millennium (3). Furthermore, the 10 hottest years in the 143-year-old global temperature record have occurred since 1990 (4).

The average temperature over most of Australia is expected to rise up to two degrees by 2030 and up to six degrees by 2070, while the number of very hot days is expected to soar. Canberra is predicted to average up to 30 days over 35º by 2070, compared to four days now (5). Extreme summer heat can be lethal, as shown by the 35,000 fatalities of the 2003 European heatwave.

Australia, already the world's driest continent, is becoming dryer still. The 2002 drought was the first where the impact of human-induced global warming could be clearly observed, according to Australian meteorologist Dr. David Karoly. Heat and dryness also set the stage for bushfires which burned for 59 days during January and February of 2003 (6).

CSIRO predicts significantly decreased rainfall for much of Australia, declining up to 60% by 2070 in the south-west. Perth's surface water supply has already decreased by 42% since the mid-1970s in response to a 15-20% decrease in rainfall -- a change scientists have linked to global warming (7).

CSIRO also predicts storms will feature greater maximum wind speeds and more sudden and extreme rainfall (even where total rainfall decreases) (8). More intense tropical cyclones would bring storm surges, flooding, landslides, erosion and damage to buildings, not to mention the threat to human lives and livelihoods.

Linking the recent increase of weather-related disasters to climate change, global re-insurer Munich Re says that the world can expect a sharp increase in insurance costs and greater human misery unless we reduce our reliance on fossil fuels (9).

Some argue that this is a reason to expand nuclear power, but Greenpeace disagrees. Not only are significant greenhouse emissions generated through uranium mining and processing, plant construction and waste management stages, but nuclear power plants also produce routine radioactive releases, pose serious safety concerns and have a growing unsolved disposal challenge for highly toxic waste.

Energy efficiency and renewable energy are safer -- and far more economical -- ways to tackle climate change.

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